Written by Lito U. Gagni / Market Files

Tuesday, 19 January 2010 21:05

How come Quezon City Vice Mayor Herbert “Bistek” Bautista, despite nearly a decade at City Hall, is in a so-called “statistical tie” with former presidential chief of staff Mike Defensor? This is what is apparent from the surveys that the camps of Bistek and Defensor have both commissioned on the QC mayoral race. Based on one survey result, Bistek is ahead of Defensor by three percentage points, 42 versus 39 percent; another survey shows Defensor slightly ahead of Bistek by about four percentage points, 44 versus 40 percent. In a sense, the surveys showed that Bistek and Defensor are in a statistical tie since the margin of error of plus and minus four percentage points means that either of them could win the mayorship. It is on this issue that an escalation of hostilities between the two leading contenders was noted, most especially during the Christmas holidays, as both camps tried to create a bandwagon effect for their respective mayoral candidates. We do not know whether the results of the surveys—done internally and not by professional research organizations—could hold sway until crunch time. But judging from the results, one thing is certain: the two leading contenders are Bistek and Defensor. But as we asked in the opening of this piece, how come Bistek has not shown a formidable lead given his nine-year stay at the City Hall? Add to this the fact that Defensor figured in several controversies, including the aborted NBN-ZTE contract. What gives? This is what’s interesting about the QC mayoral contest: Because of the slim difference of the survey results between the two leading contenders, the margin of error practically erases that lead. So in effect, the results indicate “bad news” for the comedian-turned-politician Bistek since it is no comic relief for him to know that he and Defensor are in a dead heat. For the handlers of Bistek, the sign is ominous; for those of Defensor, the occasion calls for a mini-celebration. What is apparent is that despite nearly a decade of Bistek’s occupation of the vice mayor’s office, he appears to have failed to build a solid, formidable lead over his closest rival. Actually, Bistek had four terms as QC vice mayor. He was first elected to the post in 1995 but made an unsuccessful run for the mayoralty in 1998. He made a comeback in 2001, thanks to the backing of three-term Mayor Sonny Belmonte . Given his very long stay in QC politics, the prognosis was that he should be a shoo-in in the bid to succeed the outgoing Belmonte. But that does not seem to be the case. If Bistek is leading Defensor only by three percentage points, then it seems QC residents are not convinced that Bistek is the rightful successor to the post that Belmonte will vacate. Aggravating the bleak analysis is the fact that Defensor had actually been absent from QC local politics since President Arroyo took over. Defensor had to take on major responsibilities in the national government, leaving him with little or no time to consolidate his QC constituency. In addition, Defensor’s name has been dragged into several controversies. Opposition personalities like Rodolfo “Jun” Lozada and Manila Regional Trial Court Judge Jorge Lloredo have exposed Defensor to public embarrassment. He has been called names by the likes of former songstress Lea Navarro. But despite these negative events that could have impacted on his chances, Defensor appears to be giving Bistek a tough fight. So why is the vice mayor having a hard time building a lead? Some say it is because of issues hounding Bistek himself. Defensor has accused him of using millions of pesos of QC taxpayers’ money in questionable emergency purchases of Filipino culinary delights. Others say Bistek has not really proved himself a worthy successor of Belmonte. Still others say Defensor’s feats at the national scene appear to have created the impression that he is the better executive. This is what is worrisome for Bistek. It appears parties sympathetic to Bistek are similarly worried. Proof of this is the rash of hastily assembled black-propaganda campaign against his closest rival. Over the holidays, we saw the emergence of smear efforts aimed at portraying Defensor in a negative light. Bistek may have to be advised that the black propaganda against Defensor is not working; it could boomerang on him. Smearing Defensor won’t prove that Bistek has the executive ability necessary to run one of the country’s most important cities. Also, the demolition campaign against Defensor won’t help Bistek dispel rumors that the million-peso emergency-food-purchases mess is true. Bistek’s supporters will have to do better than that if they expect the real surveys to show the comedian in the lead. As marketing expert Al Ries said, the positioning for a product should address what is already in the mind of the consumers. Thus, Bistek should address the issue of Defensor’s winnability, no more, no less.